Just got back last night—drive home from June Lake was very challenging. I’ll be writing quite a bit over the next month about my Avalanche class experience. For now, let me say I’m really glad I did it. Did the class make me an expert on avalanches? Absolutely not. But I did learn a great deal, and just as importantly, I got motivated to keep learning.

Obviously the big news right now in the skiing world is the storm cycle. Whether or not this is a classic El Nino pattern I’ll leave to the experts. Suffice to say I’ve seen potential rainfall totals (for the combined systems) estimated in the 8-20″ range (that’s rain, not snow!), meaning we’re going to be seeing a wide range of impacts, some good, some not so good. Sierra snowfall totals should be in the 6-12 foot range, which is massive. Local mountain snowfall is harder to call, as many areas will see rain mixed with snow, making the totals misleadingly low. Still, Mount Baldy is reporting 7-16″ of new snow this morning.

It should go without saying that only the most experienced winter mountaineers should even consider going out into the backcountry this week, and even they are probably best advised to stay home. Even those thinking about heading to the mountains for inbounds skiing should beware potential road closures, mudslides, bridges destroyed, traffic accidents, etc. Whatever you do, be conservative. As I was reminded just last night, it’s not a good feeling when you know you’re right on the edge of spending an unplanned night in your car (or worse) in a raging blizzard.

That’s the thought on my mind this morning. Another nice fat storm blowing in off the Pacific, with rain forecast locally into Sunday. Mt Baldy Ski is conspicuously silent on new accumulations. They’re saying snow levels are expected to drop, which may be code for, “It’s raining.” Mountain High says 2″ new snow—but they’re opening up the East resort, which is a really good sign this early in the year. Old reliable Mammoth Mountain says 4″ new snow on a 3-6′ base. Hmm…not much happening out of this storm as yet.

As I see it, we’ve been way under average for snowfall in California since the ’05/’06 winter, which was (I believe) an El Nino year. That was coincidentally the year I officially started up sierradescents, which was frustrating, as we got off with a bang but have bemoaned dry winters ever since. There’ve been opportunities over the years of course, but there are also a lot of lines in the Sierra that just need a lot of snow to open up. Let’s face it, looking back over some of my trip reports, someone unfamiliar with the Sierra might think that conditions like I skied on Mount LeConte or Birch Mountain or Mount Tyndall are the norm out here.

Really I suppose the most important reason to hope for a big winter is to quash that terrible shame I feel everytime I read those damned Coloradans whooping about another unusually-stable deep December snowpack, or fantastic powder skiing in June. It’s abnormal, I tell you. Let’s hope this is the year that harmony and balance are restored to the Universe—and we get ridiculous amounts of snow!

Raindrops on concrete here in the basin today. A very cold storm is working its way in, with snow levels currently down around 4000 feet in the local mountains. Looks like my $49.00 pseudo-season pass for Mt. Baldy is going to pay off after all! Speaking of passes, Mountain High is offering a $349.00 no-restriction season pass, but that deal may be ending today. Tempting—I like Mt. High East’s beginner chair (not always running) as one of the best places locally to ski with really little kids.

Mammoth says 6″ of new snow, with an expected 20-30″ on the way. That should be enough to get the Eastern Sierra open for business. Expect a more modest but still impressive 13-17″ of snow in the San Gabriel Mountains, with more to come later this week. No advisories yet from the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center. Their website is still showing the November announcement saying they’re ‘in the process’ of hiring a forecaster. Hope they get their act in gear soon…

I enjoyed the original Freakonomics when it first came out. Written by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J. Dubner, the book used economic analysis in clever and unexpected ways to expose “the hidden side of everything.” Freakonomics made its share of enemies, thanks to its occasionally radical theories, such as suggesting the national decline in Crime seen during the Clinton years was actually due to the legalization of Abortion some twenty years earlier. Levitt and Dubner clearly enjoyed rabble-rousing as a sport. But, the book did successfully challenge conventional wisdom on a wide range of subjects. It was a good, fun read.

After reading the book I followed the Freakonomics Blog for a while, though as time progressed the authors’ unconventional wisdom began to look more and more like conventional right-wing claptrap, so I moved on. Flash forward to this year, and the release of Levitt and Dubner’s new book. SuperFreakonomics has a key chapter on Climate Change titled, “Global Cooling: What Do Al Gore and Mount Pinatubo Have in Common?”, which gives you a good sense of where their unconventional wisdom has apparently led them (more…)

Well, I think I would be remiss in my duties if I didn’t point out that heavy rain is falling here in the basin, and snow has fallen, is falling, and will fall all over the Sierra. We’re into some very strange freaky June weather here…but maybe we stuck the skis in the closet a little too early.

Looking ahead to the weekend, watch for unsettled weather to continue, with thunder and lightning potential wherever you go. Hard to know what to say about avalanche hazard at this point in the season (ESAC is already closed), but in addition to the usual threats, do beware of that potent June sun poking out and burning brand-new snow. Things can go from sublime to scary glop in minutes.

I’m still trying to shake off a nasty playground bug, so I may be forced to sit the weekend out. If you do get out there, have fun and be safe. It might just be fantastic.

Yes, it’s a bona fide winter storm! We got heavy rain overnight here in the Southland, and it’s still raining hard now. Looks like this is a cold storm. Mount Baldy says a foot of new snow overnight. Mammoth got 18 inches. Could it be that we’re suddenly going to get a ton of snow this month now that I’m supposed to be resting?

Here’s a look at the sunrise from near our home this morning: that’s a lot of smoke.

The Yorba Linda/Anaheim area fires are about sixty miles east of us, which gives a sense of just how smoky the Los Angeles Basin is this morning.

And, when I turn and look to the west, the sky is considerably smoky from the Santa Barbara fires northwest of us.

What a mess!

More storm news from the Eastern Sierra. Looks like last year’s fires were a factor in this. The mudslide occurred over fire-blackened land.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that March, April, and May 2008 were the driest winter months on record for California and the Sierra Nevada mountains.

I suppose that shouldn’t be surprising, given that (A) these three months traditionally see heavy snowfall in the Sierra and (B) this year these same months were essentially bone dry (except for the Memorial Day storm). Still, it is a strange and alarming ending for a winter that featured both unusually intense storms and an unusual absence of storms.

California depends on the Sierra snowpack for much of its water needs, prompting Sacramento to declare a statewide drought. Said the Governator: “This drought is an urgent reminder of the immediate need to upgrade California’s water infrastructure. There is no more time to waste because nothing is more vital to protect our economy, our environment and our quality-of-life.”

For those who follow the ever-developing story of Global Climate Change, the threat of reduced Sierra and Rocky Mountain snowpacks (and thus available water in the Western U.S.) is an area of great concern in this country. For more info on the subject, Google “Lake Powell Water Shortage.”

I should point out that Colorado is enjoying a banner year (the bastards are still skiing backcountry powder, as far as I’ve heard). The actual impact of a warmer Earth is of course unknowable, which is part of what makes the problem so difficult to deal with. That said, scarcity of water may prove to be a sleeper of an issue with a big bite.

I was walking out my door today around 5 p.m. on the way to the grocery when the sudden rumble of thunder stopped me.

Hmm…I guess those black clouds on the horizon weren’t fog, after all. SoCal weather took a turn for the bizarre today, with the full gamut of weather phenomena.

Here at the SierraDescents command center, we got heavy rain and lightning.

For those unfamiliar with Southern California, rain this time of year is exceedingly rare, and thunder is rare year-round (more…)