Winter Returns (Again)
Our off-again, on-again winter returns this weekend, with a huge forecast that should hopefully turn our thoughts back to snow. Sunday night appears to offer the most potential for snowfall, with huge storm totals being predicted from the Eastern Sierra to SoCal…
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Predictions?
Some time ago, my mom began what is now an annual tradition: the prediction, every Fall, that the upcoming winter is going to be “The Big One.” One would assume this strategy would guarantee that when The Big One finally did arrive, my mom would have successfully predicted it, but unfortunately she had the bad luck to begin her forecasting career at the start of an exceptionally dry decade in the southwest. Winter after winter would thus come and go in our hometown of Flagstaff, Arizona, leaving us in shirtsleeves on Christmas, grumbling helplessly as the local ski area struggled to open.
Lately, however, my Mom’s been on a bit of a winning streak. Which bring us to this coming winter…
For anyone who spent any time at a Southern California beach this past summer, it’s been pretty obvious that a La Nina winter was coming. The ocean has been cold, cold, cold, producing a cool foggy summer along the coast (113° diversions aside). Past experience suggests La Nina means bad news for California skiers. But there’s no way to explain away these very strange October storms that we’re having. So which will it be: Big Winter or Bust?
I’m going to modify my mom’s strategy a little and suggest that whatever happens, we’re going to have an unusual winter. That’s my prediction. Expect the unexpected. Strange storms, strange warm and dry periods, strange mountains. Count on it.
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113?
Or was it even hotter? The LA Times reports the official thermometer downtown reached 113° F today, the highest temperature ever recorded (going back to 1877) — and then the thermometer stopped working. Have mercy!
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3 Storms
Just got back last night—drive home from June Lake was very challenging. I’ll be writing quite a bit over the next month about my Avalanche class experience. For now, let me say I’m really glad I did it. Did the class make me an expert on avalanches? Absolutely not. But I did learn a great deal, and just as importantly, I got motivated to keep learning.
Obviously the big news right now in the skiing world is the storm cycle. Whether or not this is a classic El Nino pattern I’ll leave to the experts. Suffice to say I’ve seen potential rainfall totals (for the combined systems) estimated in the 8-20″ range (that’s rain, not snow!), meaning we’re going to be seeing a wide range of impacts, some good, some not so good. Sierra snowfall totals should be in the 6-12 foot range, which is massive. Local mountain snowfall is harder to call, as many areas will see rain mixed with snow, making the totals misleadingly low. Still, Mount Baldy is reporting 7-16″ of new snow this morning.
It should go without saying that only the most experienced winter mountaineers should even consider going out into the backcountry this week, and even they are probably best advised to stay home. Even those thinking about heading to the mountains for inbounds skiing should beware potential road closures, mudslides, bridges destroyed, traffic accidents, etc. Whatever you do, be conservative. As I was reminded just last night, it’s not a good feeling when you know you’re right on the edge of spending an unplanned night in your car (or worse) in a raging blizzard.
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Is this ‘The Year’?
That’s the thought on my mind this morning. Another nice fat storm blowing in off the Pacific, with rain forecast locally into Sunday. Mt Baldy Ski is conspicuously silent on new accumulations. They’re saying snow levels are expected to drop, which may be code for, “It’s raining.” Mountain High says 2″ new snow—but they’re opening up the East resort, which is a really good sign this early in the year. Old reliable Mammoth Mountain says 4″ new snow on a 3-6′ base. Hmm…not much happening out of this storm as yet.
As I see it, we’ve been way under average for snowfall in California since the ’05/’06 winter, which was (I believe) an El Nino year. That was coincidentally the year I officially started up sierradescents, which was frustrating, as we got off with a bang but have bemoaned dry winters ever since. There’ve been opportunities over the years of course, but there are also a lot of lines in the Sierra that just need a lot of snow to open up. Let’s face it, looking back over some of my trip reports, someone unfamiliar with the Sierra might think that conditions like I skied on Mount LeConte or Birch Mountain or Mount Tyndall are the norm out here.
Really I suppose the most important reason to hope for a big winter is to quash that terrible shame I feel everytime I read those damned Coloradans whooping about another unusually-stable deep December snowpack, or fantastic powder skiing in June. It’s abnormal, I tell you. Let’s hope this is the year that harmony and balance are restored to the Universe—and we get ridiculous amounts of snow!
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December Snow
Raindrops on concrete here in the basin today. A very cold storm is working its way in, with snow levels currently down around 4000 feet in the local mountains. Looks like my $49.00 pseudo-season pass for Mt. Baldy is going to pay off after all! Speaking of passes, Mountain High is offering a $349.00 no-restriction season pass, but that deal may be ending today. Tempting—I like Mt. High East’s beginner chair (not always running) as one of the best places locally to ski with really little kids.
Mammoth says 6″ of new snow, with an expected 20-30″ on the way. That should be enough to get the Eastern Sierra open for business. Expect a more modest but still impressive 13-17″ of snow in the San Gabriel Mountains, with more to come later this week. No advisories yet from the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center. Their website is still showing the November announcement saying they’re ‘in the process’ of hiring a forecaster. Hope they get their act in gear soon…
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Execution by Mathmatics
I enjoyed the original Freakonomics when it first came out. Written by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J. Dubner, the book used economic analysis in clever and unexpected ways to expose “the hidden side of everything.” Freakonomics made its share of enemies, thanks to its occasionally radical theories, such as suggesting the national decline in Crime seen during the Clinton years was actually due to the legalization of Abortion some twenty years earlier. Levitt and Dubner clearly enjoyed rabble-rousing as a sport. But, the book did successfully challenge conventional wisdom on a wide range of subjects. It was a good, fun read.
After reading the book I followed the Freakonomics Blog for a while, though as time progressed the authors’ unconventional wisdom began to look more and more like conventional right-wing claptrap, so I moved on. Flash forward to this year, and the release of Levitt and Dubner’s new book. SuperFreakonomics has a key chapter on Climate Change titled, “Global Cooling: What Do Al Gore and Mount Pinatubo Have in Common?”, which gives you a good sense of where their unconventional wisdom has apparently led them (more…)
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June comes with Snow
Well, I think I would be remiss in my duties if I didn’t point out that heavy rain is falling here in the basin, and snow has fallen, is falling, and will fall all over the Sierra. We’re into some very strange freaky June weather here…but maybe we stuck the skis in the closet a little too early.
Looking ahead to the weekend, watch for unsettled weather to continue, with thunder and lightning potential wherever you go. Hard to know what to say about avalanche hazard at this point in the season (ESAC is already closed), but in addition to the usual threats, do beware of that potent June sun poking out and burning brand-new snow. Things can go from sublime to scary glop in minutes.
I’m still trying to shake off a nasty playground bug, so I may be forced to sit the weekend out. If you do get out there, have fun and be safe. It might just be fantastic.
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Snow!
Yes, it’s a bona fide winter storm! We got heavy rain overnight here in the Southland, and it’s still raining hard now. Looks like this is a cold storm. Mount Baldy says a foot of new snow overnight. Mammoth got 18 inches. Could it be that we’re suddenly going to get a ton of snow this month now that I’m supposed to be resting?
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Smoke at Sunrise
Here’s a look at the sunrise from near our home this morning: that’s a lot of smoke.
The Yorba Linda/Anaheim area fires are about sixty miles east of us, which gives a sense of just how smoky the Los Angeles Basin is this morning.
And, when I turn and look to the west, the sky is considerably smoky from the Santa Barbara fires northwest of us.
What a mess!
Shasta - Avalanche Gulch
Birch - Southeast Face
Bloody Mtn - Bloody Couloir
Langley - Northeast Couloir
Garmont Radium
